Hello everyone…
In April 2020, I published an article CATCH THE GOLD. At that time, gold was trading around INR 4460 / gram or USD 1729 / ounce. Today a year later, it is INR 4980 / gram or USD 1860.. an increase of 12% in US dollar terms. All this has happened after making a high of circa USD 2038 / ounce in Aug 2020 and touching a low of around USD 1676 / ounce in Mar 2021.
What does this indicate?
It shows how money inflow can raise the prices of commodities in the market. During the peak of the pandemic last year US Fed printed a lot of money and the cash in the hands of investors or rather traders was chasing both commodities and stocks, hence a peak in prices in Aug 2020. Then it gradually came under pressure, first due to cooling of the volatility index (triggered by a decrease in COVID infections, opening of economy and vaccination drive), second due to traders forced to sell at higher levels to meet their margin requirements, and third due to rise in US dollar and treasury yields. Since April 2021 it has started shining again and inching towards USD 2000/ounce.
The pandemic hasn’t yet ended. So, the question is… Will the history repeat this year for Gold?
You see, the world is still grappling with the pandemic but there are certain developments that have happened over a year.
First, the vaccination has come out and a large population around the world is getting vaccinated, though the efficiency of the same ranges widely from company to company and from one type of strain to another. Second, the scale of fiscal stimulus given by governments last year will reduce this year. Third, the economy is headed in the direction of normalization and people have well understood the precautions that are needed in this environment. Fourth, most of the countries including India have gone through the peak of COVID infections and the curve is reducing and expected to die out in the next 2 quarters or at the max by end of this year as predicted by various agencies.
Talking about India, the vaccination programme has started in full strength and the lockdowns are being imposed in pockets as per the situation in each state. I would not completely rule out a stimulus package at this stage either in India or the US since the economic recovery is not yet on track but the value of stimulus will not be in billion dollars.
Looking at these reasons, there will not be huge money chasing gold this year. I believe the available money will find its way across commodities especially silver this year, reasons for this will be in my next article.
So dear friends, we will see the gold prices rising again but it will find asset allocation in the form of insurance against inflation rather than big investment. 3 reasons why gold will keep rising from these levels: 1. The money printed world over last year by central governments is keeping the purchasing power of the currency, be it USD or INR to be lower. 2. The FAO (Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations) has come up with a report showing food inflation crossing 7-year highs i.e. a significant jump in the Food Price Index. 3. Wedding season in India in the second half of the year will raise further demand for gold.
Hence in my view, the downside in the yellow metal is limited and we should see the glitter in the yellow metal by year-end.
Hope you will make your asset allocation wisely. Happy Investing!
Warm regards,
Mayank Talwar
Your study about the gold metal price in the coming future is remarkable, hope your study will prove its worth.